Monthly House Views - Tailwinds- July 2026

Economic resilience despite uncertainty

After a first half of the year marked by a sharp rise in geopolitical uncertainty, the energy crisis, and renewed uncertainty surrounding economic policies, global growth proved relatively resilient, particularly in the United States. Strong U.S. growth was driven by fiscal stimulus, which supported household consumption, as well as by the expansion of investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure. In Europe, despite greater energy dependency, economic activity remained resilient, supported by reindustrialization plans and a combination of lower inventories and weaker oil demand. As a result, uncertainty mainly translated into higher inflation across major economies, prompting central banks to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance and communication during the first half of the year, without significantly undermining economic activity.

Strong equity markets and volatile bond markets

In line with the resilience of global economic activity, major equity markets delivered strong performances during the first half of the year, averaging gains of more than 10%, reflecting both robust earnings growth and upward revisions to expectations. The semiconductor sector delivered particularly strong performance, supported by significant earnings growth linked to investment plans in AI infrastructure. The first half of the year was less favorable for bond markets, particularly for bonds with the longest durations. These were negatively impacted by rising inflation and by changes in central bank communication and monetary policy. In an environment where economic activity remains well supported, where the AI investment cycle continues, and where inflation risks remain present, we maintain an Overweight position in equity markets, with a preference for U.S. and emerging markets, while retaining an Underweight position in bond markets.

Current investment themes

Beyond investments in data centers, the development and deployment of AI are driving growth in the industrial robotics sector by addressing challenges such as quality improvement, supply chain security, and shortages of skilled labor. In addition, demographic aging and the structural increase in healthcare spending are expected to support sustained demand for companies operating in the healthcare sector in the years ahead.

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