Monthly House Views - On a roll ! - June 2026

A clear easing

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the recent easing in oil prices have led to renewed optimism in markets, accompanied by a decline in interest rate tensions. However, this easing would remain partial, as it is taking place in an environment where underlying inflationary pressures persist, notably fueled by the resilience of global activity. Behind the more favorable market dynamics, contrasting economic dynamics also remain in place.

Stories that remain different

In the United States, the economic environment appears clearly more robust, supported by a strong labor market, accommodative fiscal policy, and the rise of AI. The energy shock thus adds to already existing tensions, reinforcing the risk of persistent inflation that could justify further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. In Europe, the rise in energy prices is occurring in a much more fragile macroeconomic context. Activity remains constrained by weakening domestic demand and sluggish services activity. Expectations of a significant tightening by the ECB therefore appear exaggerated.

A more favorable market momentum

In this context of fears of higher inflation but resilient activity, we maintain our preference for equity markets over bonds. However, we remain more exposed to U.S. equity markets than to European markets, due to differing cyclical dynamics between the two regions and the weight of AI in U.S. indices. In addition, we now anticipate a more favorable short-term move in the dollar, due to an adjustment in monetary policy expectations. Finally, in line with our positive view on the AI sector, we maintain an Overweight on emerging markets, particularly Asia-Pacific markets. We retain a reduced exposure to the Chinese equity market, penalized by sluggish domestic demand.

Current investment themes

Energy independence remains a long-term strategic focus, supported by massive investments in infrastructure and security of supply. Industrial metals continue to benefit from the energy transition, electrification, and growing needs linked to AI. Finally, in an environment of durably higher interest rates, carry strategies are strengthening their appeal, offering an additional source of return and stabilization in portfolios exposed to risky assets.

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