Monthly House Views - A strategic strait - March 2026
In accordance with the regulations in force, we inform the reader that this document is qualified as a promotional document.
An escalation in energy prices
The continuation of the conflict in the Middle East and, above all, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have reignited tensions in energy markets. Both oil and natural gas are thus experiencing marked price increases. A strategic transit point for a significant share of global hydrocarbon trade, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the epicenter of investor concerns. This situation highlights the persistent vulnerability of the global economy to energy shocks.
A shock more inflationary than recessionary
Although uncertainty remains high, our central scenario continues to be that of tensions lasting for a limited period, followed by a gradual normalization of energy prices. In this context, the shock appears more inflationary than recessionary. Developed economies are entering this phase with support factors, both in terms of fiscal policies and investments linked to artificial intelligence. Central banks, for their part, are likely to maintain a cautious approach, attentive to the risk of renewed inflationary pressures stemming from energy.
A strategy with a more cautious tone
In this context, we maintain an overweight position in equities and an underweight position in bonds, supported by macroeconomic resilience and the risk that inflationary pressures could exert upward pressure on interest rates. Nevertheless, we have reduced our overweight to European equity markets, which are more sensitive to the energy shock, reallocating the remainder to money market instruments in a wait and see approach. This strategy aims to preserve portfolio flexibility in a more volatile environment, without calling into question our fundamentally offensive allocation.
A reaffirmation of our convictions
In the medium term, our convictions remain unchanged. The German stimulus plan continues to represent a major structural support for European growth and for several key sectors. At the same time, we remain confident in the potential of the artificial intelligence theme, particularly in Asia, where a large share of investments and the hardware value chain are concentrated. In an environment marked by exogenous shocks and persistent geopolitical tensions, these structural drivers remain essential pillars of our investment strategy.
DISCLAIMER :
This document has no contractual value. It is not intended to provide an investment service such as investment advice, a related investment service, arbitration advice or legal, accounting or tax advice from Société Générale Private Banking France (‘SGPB France’), which cannot therefore be held liable for any decision taken by an investor solely on the basis of its content. SGPB France undertakes neither to update nor to modify it.
Before making any investment decision, please review the details of the documentation for the service or product being considered, including any associated risks, and consult your legal and tax advice. If the document is consulted by a French tax non-resident, he or she will have to ensure with his or her legal and tax advisors that he or she complies with the legal and regulatory provisions of the jurisdiction concerned. It is not intended for distribution in the United States, or to a U.S. tax resident, or to any person or jurisdiction for which such distribution would be restricted or unlawful.
The past performance information that may be reproduced is not intended to guarantee future performance. These future performances are therefore indicative. The return to investors will vary depending on market performance and the shelf life of the investment. Future performance may be subject to tax, which depends on your present and future personal situation.
Societe Generale has put in place a policy to manage conflicts of interest. SGPB France has put in place (i) a policy to handle complaints made by its customers, available on request from your private banker or on its website and (ii) a policy to protect personal data (https://www.privatebanking.societegenerale.com/fr/protection-donnees-personnelles/). At any time and without charge, you have the right to access, rectify, limit processing, erase your data and the right to object to their use for the purposes of commercial prospecting by contacting our Data Protection Officer by email (protectiondesdonnees@societegenerale.fr). In the event of a dispute, you can lodge a complaint with the Commission Nationale de l’Informatique et des Libertés (CNIL), the supervisory authority responsible for compliance with personal data obligations.
This document is issued by Societe Generale, a French bank authorized and supervised by the Prudential Control and Resolution Authority, located at 4 Place de Budapest, 75436 Paris Cedex 09, under the prudential supervision of the European Central Bank (‘ECB’) and registered with ORIAS as an insurance intermediary under number 07 022 493, orias.fr. Societe Generale is a French public limited company with a capital of EUR 1 003 724 927.50 on 17 November 2023, whose registered office is located at 29 boulevard Haussmann, 75009 Paris, and whose unique identification number is 552 120 222 R.C.S. Paris (ADEME FR231725_01YSGB). More details are available on request or at www.privatebanking.societegenerale.com/. This document may not be communicated or reproduced in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of SGPB France.
By Clémentine Gallès Chief Economist and Strategist Societe Generale Private Banking and Juan Carlos Mendoza Diaz...
By Clémentine Gallès Chief Economist and Strategist Societe Generale Private Banking and Juan Carlos Mendoza Diaz...
By Clémentine Gallès Chief Economist and Strategist Societe Generale Private Banking and Juan Carlos Mendoza Diaz...
By Clémentine Gallès Chief Economist and Strategist Societe Generale Private Banking and Juan Carlos Mendoza Diaz...