Monthly House Views - Stay in control - February 2026
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Sustained activity despite uncertainties
Economic momentum remains strong, supported by positive fiscal policies in several major economies and an investment cycle that is also fueled by the AI sector. Paradoxically, rising geopolitical tensions are tending to reinforce the activation of support measures, as governments seek to secure their economic sovereignty. At the same time, the main players in AI continue to announce substantial investment programs. While the cumulative scale of these projects raises questions, these initiatives will nevertheless be a significant driver of global activity in 2026.
A strategy that remains assertive and is being refined
We are maintaining our overweight position in equity markets, supported by a generally favorable earnings outlook. However, we are refining our targeting within this exposure. In the United States, performance remains highly concentrated in a limited number of technology stocks, while profit-taking continues. In this context, we are reducing our overexposure to the AI theme and bringing our positioning back to a balance between growth and value styles. This rebalancing reflects our expectation of a gradual broadening of the drivers of performance within the US economy.
We maintain a clear preference for Europe, buoyed by the implementation of fiscal stimulus plans—particularly in Germany—which should support the infrastructure and defense sectors. Asian markets remain well positioned, driven by the rise of AI and a more dynamic growth cycle. These regions also continue to offer attractive valuations.
A marginal rebalancing
In the bond market, we are maintaining an overall underweight position, as the expected levels of government bond issuance are limiting the appeal of these markets. However, we are making some marginal adjustments: reducing exposure to high yield, which has become less attractive, and redeploying towards European sovereign bonds and hedge funds, whose carry and decorrelation potential strengthen the overall resilience of our allocation. These adjustments improve diversification without changing our offensive stance. Finally, we are maintaining a neutral position on the dollar, while retaining strategic exposure to gold, which plays its role as a hedging asset.
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