Monthly House Views - Off to a flying start - December 2025

Strong resilience of economies and market 
The year 2025 was marked by the resilience of major economies, despite the context of geopolitical tensions, trade issues, and political uncertainties. The latest activity indicators confirm this dynamic, notably driven by sustained investment in artificial intelligence in the United States, while the euro area benefits from the normalization of inflation and monetary policy. In 2026, as major central banks are expected to maintain a near status quo, fiscal policy support and continued investments in artificial intelligence should be the main drivers of economies and markets.

Unchanged convictions, affirmed strategy
In this context, this final House Views of the year marks a "strong start": we maintain our affirmed strategy to begin 2026. We keep an overweight position in equity markets, with a preference for the United States and Europe, supported by sectoral dynamics and the implementation of fiscal stimulus plans, notably in Europe. We also maintain our constructive tone on Japan and emerging markets, which are also benefiting from the momentum of AI.

We confirm our strong underweight position in bonds. Interest rate tensions are expected to persist, driven by a rising bond supply, the reduction of European Central Banks’ balance sheets, and structurally higher inflation compared to the past. While this environment justifies our caution towards sovereign bonds, we remain constructive on corporate bonds, notably High Yield. This segment benefits from higher carry and lower sensitivity to interest rate pressures. We keep a neutral position on the dollar while maintaining exposure to gold as a hedging asset. Investment themes — particularly artificial intelligence and European sovereignty — remain key focuses to capture performance.

This edition additionally includes information on unlisted assets: real estate as well as private markets (equity and debt).

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