Monthly House Views - Holding the line! - November 2025

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Markets driven by economic momentum and Artificial Intelligence

Equity markets have confirmed their positive trend in recent weeks, supported by a resilient macroeconomic environment. Despite ongoing uncertainties — geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France — market momentum has not faltered. Activity indicators continue to deliver positive surprises, and outlooks remain favorable, with monetary and especially fiscal policies set to keep supporting growth in the coming months.

Moreover, massive investments in artificial intelligence, alongside strong profits notably in the U.S., sustain a robust sectoral momentum that permeates equity markets broadly. This combination of factors reinforces our scenario of resilient growth in key regions.

Maintaining our assertive positioning

In this context, we keep our strategic framework unchanged. We maintain our overweight stance on equities, with a clear preference for the United States and Europe, and a constructive tone on Japan and emerging markets. This allocation aligns with our macroeconomic scenario and our aim to capture differentiated dynamics globally.

We also confirm our strong underweight in bonds. Interest rate pressures are expected to persist, driven by high bond supply, central banks’ balance sheet reductions in Europe, and structurally higher inflation than in the past. This setup justifies our caution toward sovereign bonds. We remain constructive on well-rated corporate bonds (Investment Grade), which offer better carry and lower sensitivity to long-term rate pressures.

Finally, we revise our view on the dollar: we now adopt a neutral position, reflecting eased tariff tensions and more favorable interest rate prospects for the dollar.

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